The probability of the CLARITY Act passing by the end of the year has fallen to 8% on Kalshi after a preliminary Senate vote failed to reach the 60 votes required to advance the legislation.
The result marks another setback for the bill as lawmakers attempt to move forward with legislation that would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the US crypto market. The 60-vote threshold means the legislation requires broader Senate support to progress.
The sharp decline in Kalshi's implied probability reflects a significant deterioration in market expectations following the unsuccessful vote. However, the prediction-market figure represents market expectations rather than a definitive assessment of the bill's eventual outcome.
For the crypto market, the setback extends uncertainty around the legislative process and the regulatory framework the CLARITY Act is intended to establish. Continued delays could leave market participants without the additional regulatory clarity the legislation seeks to provide.
The next focus will be whether lawmakers can resume negotiations and build enough support for another attempt to advance the bill. Further Senate action and changes to the legislation will be key developments to watch.
