The probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has fallen to around 16% on prediction market Polymarket, down sharply from a recent high of 35%. The decline comes as several Democratic senators oppose the latest Republican proposal, arguing that changes to ethics and conflict-of-interest rules remain insufficient.
Democrats are also preparing a counterproposal, adding another layer of uncertainty ahead of the expected Senate vote. Republicans need 60 votes to advance the legislation, meaning a failed vote could once again stall efforts to establish a clearer division of crypto-market oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The political disagreement is also being reinforced by industry opposition. Banking groups argue that the latest version could still leave pathways for stablecoin rewards, while some groups connected to the gaming and betting industries have raised objections to provisions covering prediction markets.
The sharp move in Polymarket odds indicates that expectations for near-term passage have weakened materially, although the probability remains sensitive to negotiations and the outcome of the Senate vote. The market may now focus on whether Democrats and Republicans can narrow their differences, particularly over ethics provisions and disputed sections of the bill.
A failed vote would risk extending uncertainty around the regulatory framework for digital assets, while progress could improve visibility over how responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC would be divided. The next key focus is therefore the Senate vote and whether negotiations produce enough support to move the bill forward.
