ADA
Cardano’s ADA token rose nearly 2% on Friday to trade around $0.2156, recovering part of the previous session’s 6% decline. However, the rebound has yet to reverse the broader technical weakness, with ADA trading below its key moving averages and a broken rising support trendline. Mixed activity among large holders, declining futures open interest and persistent bearish momentum suggest that the recovery remains vulnerable.
On-chain data from Santiment shows that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA controlled 37.93% of the circulating supply on Friday, down from 38.27% on October 10. In contrast, wallets holding more than 100 million ADA increased their share from 15.92% to 16.04% over the same period. The divergence suggests that some large holders have reduced exposure while the biggest wallets have continued selective accumulation, rather than the market experiencing uniform selling pressure. Changes in wallet classification may also have contributed to the observed shifts.
Investor profitability has weakened alongside the price decline. The share of ADA supply in profit fell from 30.78% to 17.8%, indicating that a substantially smaller proportion of tokens is trading above its acquisition cost. This deterioration points to increased unrealized losses among holders and may constrain recovery attempts if investors use price rebounds to reduce exposure.
Derivatives activity also reflects a more cautious market environment. According to CoinGlass data, ADA futures open interest declined 3.3% over 24 hours to $467.97 million. The reduction is consistent with traders scaling back positions and leverage, although the dollar-denominated figure can also fall as the token’s price declines.
Liquidations totaled approximately $1.08 million during the same period, including $1.02 million from long positions. The imbalance indicates that bullish traders absorbed most of the forced position closures as prices weakened. However, the perpetual futures funding rate remained positive at 0.0038%, suggesting that long positioning had not disappeared entirely. Together, these indicators point to divided sentiment: some traders are reducing risk, while others continue to maintain bullish exposure.
The technical picture remains the principal obstacle to a sustained recovery. ADA is trading below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $0.2274 and the broken rising trendline near $0.2282. The 200-day EMA at $0.2322 represents a further resistance level. With the Relative Strength Index near 41 and the MACD extending further into negative territory, momentum indicators continue to favor caution over a confirmed trend reversal.
These conditions leave ADA vulnerable to renewed selling if the current rebound loses strength. A move back toward the $0.20 level would put immediate support under pressure. A decisive break below that threshold could expose the August 30 low near $0.1894, creating additional downside risk if buyers fail to defend the market.
Conversely, a recovery above the $0.2274–$0.2282 resistance zone would provide the first meaningful indication that buying pressure is improving. A subsequent daily close above the $0.2322 200-day EMA would offer stronger evidence that the corrective trend is weakening. Until those levels are reclaimed, the latest advance is more consistent with a short-term rebound than a confirmed bullish reversal.
The distinction matters because Cardano’s next move will depend not only on whether buyers can sustain the price recovery, but also on whether positioning and momentum begin to improve alongside it. Selective accumulation by the largest wallets offers a potentially supportive signal, but declining supply in profit, long-heavy liquidations and weak technical momentum show that demand has not yet established a convincing recovery.
For traders, the $0.20 support level is the immediate downside threshold to monitor, while the $0.2274–$0.2322 resistance region is the key upside test. A sustained move through resistance would strengthen the recovery case; failure to hold support would increase the risk of another leg lower.
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