Moderna shares extended their decline on Friday, falling nearly 2% after leaked results from a late-stage trial of the biotech company’s personalized melanoma vaccine disappointed investors. The sell-off followed a sharp drop on Thursday, when the stock plunged as much as 26% before closing down more than 17% in its worst session since August 20.
The two-day decline erased more than $17 billion in Moderna’s market value as details of the clinical trial circulated ahead of their official presentation. Merck, Moderna’s partner in developing the vaccine, confirmed that the results had been released prematurely. The full data is scheduled to be presented at a major European cancer conference in Madrid on Saturday.
Although the leaked figures were not necessarily negative, they failed to meet investor expectations after Moderna’s strong rally earlier in the year. The reaction highlights how closely the market is scrutinizing the company’s efforts to establish a significant presence in cancer treatment as revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine business declines.
Wall Street analysts remain divided on the stock’s outlook, with most maintaining neutral or cautious positions despite the company’s longer-term potential. Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $137 from $120 while keeping a Neutral rating. Morgan Stanley also maintains a Neutral rating, with a $95 target, while Citi assigned an $80 target and a Sell rating.
Overall, analyst recommendations remain mixed, with five Buy ratings, 15 Hold ratings and five Sell ratings. These assessments reflect uncertainty over how much of Moderna’s future growth potential is already reflected in its share price.
Moderna’s stock had rallied during the summer after positive Phase 3 results announced in August for its personalized cancer vaccine, developed with Merck. The treatment has become an important part of the company’s strategy to reduce its dependence on COVID-19 products and expand into oncology.
The upcoming full clinical data presentation could help investors assess the vaccine’s efficacy and its commercial prospects more accurately. Until the complete results are available and evaluated, however, the stock may remain sensitive to changing expectations around the treatment’s potential.
