Polymarket has introduced five-minute cryptocurrency up-or-down contracts on its regulated US platform, allowing users to predict short-term price movements in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The platform operates under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Launched on October 28, the contracts pay $1 per share for a correct prediction and nothing for an incorrect one. Traders bet on whether a cryptocurrency’s price will finish above or below its starting level at the end of each five-minute period.
Although the format is simple, the risks remain significant. Unlike traditional options, these contracts offer an all-or-nothing outcome, meaning even a small price movement can determine whether a trader wins or loses.
The rapid growth of short-term crypto prediction markets reflects rising interest in event-based trading. Kalshi recorded more than $1 billion in crypto event-contract trading in March 2026, while Nasdaq and Cboe have also explored similar products.
However, settlement accuracy remains a concern. Research into Polymarket’s earlier Bitcoin contracts found increased trading activity shortly before expiration, raising questions about whether some traders attempted to influence outcomes. Those findings predated the platform’s August 2026 shift to time-weighted average price settlement and do not directly apply to the new US contracts.
