HYPE
Hyperliquid's HYPE token is approaching a critical technical zone after falling nearly 19% over the past month. Trading near $75.47 on October 25, the token remains under pressure from weakening momentum, declining futures activity and substantial leveraged positioning. The next move around $75 could determine whether HYPE stabilizes or extends its correction toward $70 and potentially $65.
The immediate challenge for buyers is reclaiming $80, a level that has repeatedly acted as a barrier to recovery. HYPE traded between $74.53 and $76.82 over the reported 24-hour period, suggesting that the market has yet to establish a convincing directional move. Although the token posted a marginal daily gain, its weekly decline of 3.65% and monthly loss of 18.87% indicate that the broader short-term trend remains weak.
Derivatives data adds another layer of uncertainty. Futures trading volume declined 15.16% to approximately $1.40 billion, while open interest slipped 0.52% to $3.07 billion. The combination suggests reduced activity in the futures market, although it does not independently establish whether traders are becoming more bearish or simply reducing exposure.
Tracked positioning data also indicated that approximately 78.1% of futures exposure was long. Such an imbalance can increase downside vulnerability if prices fall and leveraged positions are liquidated. However, this estimate reflects the provider's covered markets rather than the entire HYPE trading ecosystem, so it should be treated as an indicator rather than a definitive measure of market-wide positioning.
Spot exchange flows offer a contrasting signal. Reported net outflows reached approximately $2.47 million on October 25, suggesting that more HYPE was leaving centralized exchanges than entering them during the measured period. Persistent withdrawals can reduce immediately available exchange supply, but they do not necessarily indicate accumulation: tokens may also be transferred to private wallets, custodians or other trading venues. The price decline despite these outflows shows that withdrawals alone have not been sufficient to reverse selling pressure.
Hyperliquid's token-buyback mechanism remains an important part of the longer-term market narrative. Eligible trading fees are directed toward the Assistance Fund, which purchases HYPE in the market. The fund had reportedly spent approximately $1.36 billion on repurchases by October 13, accumulating more than 48 million tokens. These purchases can provide a source of demand, but they do not establish a price floor or guarantee that buying pressure will outweigh selling.
The daily technical picture remains cautious. The Relative Strength Index stood at 34.29, below its moving average of 39.57 and approaching the commonly watched oversold threshold of 30. This indicates sustained selling pressure, although an oversold reading by itself does not confirm that a bottom has formed.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator also remained negative. Its main line was at -2.635, below the signal line at -2.039, with a histogram reading of -0.596. These readings suggest that downward momentum had not yet produced a confirmed reversal.
The bearish scenario would strengthen if HYPE records a decisive daily close below $75 and fails to reclaim the level. In that case, $70 becomes the next important downside area. A further breakdown could expose the $65 region, identified in the supplied technical assessment as a significant Fibonacci support level. A move toward $65 remains a conditional scenario rather than a guaranteed target, and the market would need to sustain selling pressure for it to develop.
The recovery scenario depends first on buyers defending the $75 area and pushing the token back above $80. A sustained daily close above $80 would provide an initial sign that selling pressure is easing. Further recovery toward $85 and $90 would become more plausible if price strength is accompanied by improving trading activity and a stabilization in derivatives positioning. The $90–$100 region remains a broader resistance zone, while any longer-term target above $100 would require a confirmed breakout rather than an assumption based on the current chart.
The market's central tension is the contrast between weakening price momentum and continued token repurchases funded by protocol fees. Buybacks may support demand over time, but near-term price action will also depend on broader cryptocurrency market conditions, leverage and the willingness of buyers to defend key support levels.
For now, $75 is the level to watch most closely. Holding above it could allow HYPE to consolidate and attempt a recovery toward $80. Losing it decisively would shift attention to $70 and potentially $65. Until the token reclaims resistance and technical momentum improves, the evidence favors caution rather than assuming that the recent decline has already run its course.
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