Bitcoin
Bitcoin is approaching the end of October near $77,400, putting the cryptocurrency on track for a monthly decline of approximately 7.4% as the final UTC trading hours approach. A Coinbase spot feed recorded BTC at approximately $77,414 at 12:53 UTC on October 31, compared with roughly $83,555 at the beginning of the month. The latest price also leaves Bitcoin less than 2% above the $76,443 reference low recorded during the October 30 selloff.
The October monthly candle remains open until 00:00 UTC on November 1, meaning the final return has not yet been established. Nevertheless, the distance between the current market price and October's opening level indicates that Bitcoin is heading toward a clearly negative monthly close unless a substantial recovery develops during the remaining hours.
Differences between previously published October performance estimates largely reflect variations in pricing sources and measurement times. CryptoTicker calculated a 6.5% monthly decline when Bitcoin traded around $78,186 on October 30, while CoinOtag reported a smaller decline of approximately 3.8% in an earlier snapshot. Those figures reflect different market conditions rather than the latest October 31 price.
The immediate market structure highlights the importance of two nearby reference levels. On the downside, $76,443 represents the overnight low associated with the latest liquidation-driven selloff. Although different exchanges recorded slightly different prices, this level provides a useful reference for assessing whether selling pressure is returning. A sustained move below it could expose Bitcoin to the $75,000–$75,200 region, which has already appeared in technical analysis as a potential downside support area.
On the upside, $79,000 represents the first meaningful recovery threshold. From approximately $77,400, Bitcoin would need to advance slightly more than 2% to reclaim that level. A recovery above $79,000 would indicate that buyers are attempting to stabilize the market following the recent volatility. However, it would not erase the broader October decline or independently establish a sustained reversal.
The pressure behind Bitcoin's monthly performance has emerged from several overlapping developments. The most immediate crypto-specific shock followed Binance's disclosure of a security breach estimated to have had a $6.3 billion impact. The resulting market disruption coincided with approximately $1.53 billion in leveraged cryptocurrency liquidations over a 24-hour period, according to CoinDesk. Around 84% of those forced closures involved long positions, highlighting the extent to which leveraged bullish exposure contributed to the downward move.
Bitcoin subsequently declined toward approximately $76,460 before recovering toward $78,500. The concentration of long liquidations suggests that forced position closures amplified the initial selling pressure, turning an adverse market development into a broader deleveraging event. The subsequent recovery indicates that the market found buyers below $77,000, although the return toward $77,400 shows that stabilization has not yet translated into a decisive recovery.
Institutional investment flows have provided limited support during October. Finalized data through October 30 show that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $515.9 million in net outflows for the month, reversing the roughly $2.65 billion in net inflows recorded during September.
The final trading day before the October close was particularly significant, with approximately $643.2 million in ETF redemptions on October 30. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for roughly $233.7 million of those outflows, while Fidelity's FBTC recorded approximately $201 million in redemptions.
The contrast between September's inflows and October's withdrawals indicates a deterioration in the ETF flow environment. Although ETF activity alone does not determine Bitcoin's price direction, sustained redemptions can weaken an important source of spot-market demand, particularly when leveraged positions are simultaneously being liquidated.
Macroeconomic conditions have added another source of uncertainty. On October 28, the Federal Reserve maintained its target interest rate range at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10-2 vote. Notably, both dissenting members favored an increase rather than a reduction, while the central bank upgraded its assessment of economic activity from solid to strong.
The decision does not establish that another rate increase will follow, but the direction of the dissenting votes highlights the possibility of a less accommodative monetary policy environment. For Bitcoin, this matters because expectations surrounding interest rates influence the broader financial conditions under which risk-sensitive assets trade.
The October selloff also coincided with weakness across traditional technology markets. Concerns about the potential returns from artificial intelligence infrastructure spending contributed to a decline of more than 3% in the Nasdaq on October 30, alongside significant losses among major semiconductor companies.
This overlap between crypto-specific deleveraging and broader technology-sector weakness is important. Bitcoin was not facing an isolated market disruption. The Binance-related shock, ETF withdrawals and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy occurred while traditional risk assets were also under pressure, creating multiple sources of selling pressure within the same period.
Meanwhile, prediction-market pricing suggests that participants currently assign a relatively low probability to Bitcoin reaching $75,000 before October ends. Polymarket's October contract placed the probability near 1%–2% in the latest available snapshot, with the Yes side offered around 1.5 cents.
The individual $75,000 outcome had generated approximately $1.27 million in trading volume, while the broader October Bitcoin price market had recorded roughly $16.9 million. Earlier on October 31, the $75,000 contract also registered approximately $323,792 in 24-hour trading volume.
However, the low implied probability should be interpreted within the context of the contract's approaching expiration. With only the remaining October hours available for the specified outcome to occur, the probability reflects both the distance from the target and the limited time remaining. It should not be treated as an independent assessment of Bitcoin's broader downside risk.
Other Polymarket contracts showed a more closely contested near-term outlook, with the probability of Bitcoin reaching $77,000 on October 31 near 48%, while the weekly market covering October 26 through November 1 assigned approximately 69% odds to a move toward $78,000 in one recent snapshot.
As the monthly candle approaches completion, the immediate question is whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above the $76,443 post-selloff reference or recover toward $79,000. A break below the former would bring the $75,000–$75,200 region back into focus, while a move above the latter would indicate an attempt to recover part of October's losses.
The broader significance of the monthly close extends beyond the final percentage decline. October has brought together a major security-related market disruption, substantial leveraged liquidations, negative spot ETF flows and a less supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Their combined effect has left Bitcoin substantially below its opening monthly price.
Attention will therefore shift toward whether the selling pressure behind October's decline begins to ease in November. The behavior of spot ETF flows, the market's response to Federal Reserve expectations and Bitcoin's ability to defend the recent selloff low will be important indicators of whether the latest decline represents temporary deleveraging or a more persistent deterioration in market conditions.
