XRP
XRP traded near $1.30 on Sunday, October 18, after declining approximately 6.5% during the October 9–16 reporting period, as US XRP investment funds recorded net withdrawals and Ripple's next scheduled escrow release approached. The token faces three near-term developments that could influence its direction: renewed ETF demand when US markets reopen on October 19, the Federal Reserve's October 28 policy decision, and the release of up to 1 billion XRP from escrow on November 1.
The combination presents a mixed picture for XRP. Recent fund outflows indicate weaker investment demand over the reporting period, while the approaching escrow event raises questions about potential changes in available supply. However, neither development independently establishes the scale of selling pressure or determines the token's next price move.
XRP Insights reported that XRP finished the October 9–16 period at $1.30, down 6.5% for the week. CoinGecko's historical pricing also showed a substantial decline, although its different daily closing methodology produced a somewhat different result. Its rolling seven-day reading on October 18 indicated a loss of approximately 7%–8%, with XRP trading around $1.29–$1.30.
The price weakness has coincided with negative ETF flows, but the reported withdrawals remain relatively small compared with the funds' aggregate holdings.
XRP ETF outflows remain limited relative to total holdings
US XRP investment funds recorded approximately 1.8 million XRP in net withdrawals during the five trading sessions ending October 16, equivalent to roughly $2.3 million, according to XRP Insights' October 17 report. The tracker estimated that its broader fund universe held 1.19 billion XRP, with combined assets of $1.56 billion at Friday's settled close.
A separate tracker covering dedicated US spot XRP ETFs reported approximately $1.8 million in net outflows over the same five-day period, with assets totaling $1.47 billion. These figures reflect different fund coverage and methodologies and should not be combined into a single estimate.
XRP Insights tracks six US spot XRP ETFs and the XRP allocation within Bitwise's BITW index fund. Because BITW is an index fund rather than a dedicated spot XRP ETF, its inclusion broadens the tracker beyond conventional spot ETF products. The tracker also excludes Grayscale's GXRP from its flow calculations while including the fund's holdings in its asset totals.
Friday, October 16, was the weakest session in the reporting period, with approximately 2.84 million XRP leaving the funds covered by XRP Insights. The five-day net withdrawals nevertheless represented only around 0.15% of the 1.19 billion XRP held across its broader tracked fund universe.
That proportion points to a deterioration in short-term demand rather than clear evidence of a large-scale institutional exit. The distinction is important because fund flows measure changes in investor subscriptions and redemptions, while reported assets under management also fluctuate with the market price of the underlying tokens.
Consequently, falling ETF assets do not necessarily indicate equivalent selling by investors. XRP's price decline can reduce the dollar value of fund holdings even when the number of XRP held changes little.
The next reporting sessions should help establish whether the negative flow pattern is continuing or whether demand is beginning to stabilize. A sustained return to net creations would provide stronger evidence of renewed investment demand than an isolated positive session.
Evernorth shares decline, but XRPN is not a direct proxy for XRP
Weakness also extended to Evernorth Holdings, the XRP-focused digital-asset treasury company trading on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN. Its shares closed at $15.26 on October 14, down 7.40% during the session, before recovering to $16.07 on October 15 and falling 3.86% to $15.45 on October 16.
The Friday close represented a decline of approximately 9.6% from the previous week's $17.09 closing price on October 9.
Although the stock's retreat occurred alongside XRP's price weakness, the two assets represent different forms of exposure. Direct XRP ownership tracks the token's market value, whereas XRPN reflects the value of a publicly traded company, including its digital-asset holdings, capital structure, management decisions and operating strategy.
Evernorth holds approximately 473 million XRP and has outlined plans to generate returns by actively deploying its treasury rather than simply retaining the tokens. On October 14, the company identified Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken and BitGo as initial partners for its institutional execution strategy.
The company is expected to begin deploying its XRP treasury during the fourth quarter, although the initial allocation and precise strategies have not been disclosed in the provided information.
For XRP holders, the important question is whether Evernorth's treasury operations generate incremental demand for the token or primarily change how an existing position is managed. The company's share-price decline does not establish that it has sold XRP, and XRPN's performance should not be treated as a direct measure of institutional buying or selling in the underlying token.
November escrow release puts attention on net supply changes
Ripple's next scheduled escrow window opens on November 1 at 00:00 UTC, when two XRP Ledger escrow objects containing a combined 1 billion XRP become eligible for release.
An October 18 XRP Insights ledger snapshot showed 31.40 billion XRP remaining in Ripple-controlled escrow, equivalent to 31.4% of the token's original 100 billion supply.
The scheduled release is part of Ripple's established monthly escrow mechanism. However, the headline figure does not represent the amount that will necessarily enter circulation or reach exchanges.
Across the previous 12 monthly cycles, Ripple released 12 billion XRP and subsequently returned 8.4 billion XRP to new escrow contracts, representing a re-locking rate of 70%. In October, for example, 1 billion XRP was released on October 1, but 700 million XRP was subsequently placed into new escrow contracts. The resulting net reduction in escrow was 300 million XRP.
That figure should not be interpreted as confirmed exchange selling. Tokens released from escrow may remain in Ripple-controlled wallets or be allocated for other purposes without immediately becoming open-market sell orders.
If November follows the same pattern, the net reduction in escrow could be substantially smaller than the gross 1 billion XRP release. Nevertheless, the actual amount returned to escrow cannot be established before the relevant transactions occur.
For the market, the distinction between gross releases and subsequent token movements is central to assessing supply pressure. A large scheduled release does not automatically produce an equivalent increase in freely available supply, much less an equal volume of selling.
The more relevant evidence will be the amount re-locked, the subsequent movement of released tokens and whether those movements indicate additional supply becoming available to the market.
Federal Reserve decision adds a macroeconomic variable
Before the November escrow event, the Federal Reserve's October 27–28 policy meeting represents another potential catalyst for XRP and the broader cryptocurrency market. The interest-rate decision is scheduled for October 28 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time.
The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. A stronger-than-expected September inflation report subsequently renewed debate over whether policymakers might raise rates again in October or leave policy unchanged.
The implications for XRP will depend on how the decision compares with market expectations and how policymakers communicate their assessment of inflation and future policy.
Higher expected interest rates can make traditional yield-bearing assets more attractive relative to non-yielding cryptocurrencies, potentially weighing on demand for digital assets. Conversely, a policy outcome perceived as less restrictive than anticipated could support risk appetite. Neither response is automatic, and the market's reaction will depend on the information already reflected in prices.
For XRP, the macroeconomic backdrop interacts with the token-specific signals from ETF flows and escrow activity. Improving fund demand could help offset concerns about near-term supply, while continued withdrawals alongside a more restrictive monetary-policy outlook could reinforce existing weakness.
The three developments therefore provide different information: ETF flows measure changes in investment demand, the Fed decision influences the broader risk environment, and escrow transactions help clarify how Ripple's scheduled token releases affect available supply.
What matters next for XRP
The immediate test begins on October 19, when US markets reopen and the next ETF flow readings become available. A sustained return to net inflows would suggest that investment demand is recovering after the recent withdrawals. Continued outflows would indicate that the pressure has not yet eased, although their magnitude would still need to be assessed relative to total holdings.
The October 28 Federal Reserve decision will then provide a clearer indication of the monetary-policy environment facing risk assets. The key consideration will be whether the announcement and accompanying policy language are more restrictive or more accommodative than markets anticipate.
Finally, the November 1 escrow release will provide fresh evidence about Ripple's net supply changes. The amount re-locked and the subsequent movement of released XRP will be more informative than the gross release figure alone.
XRP's decline toward $1.30 has coincided with negative ETF flows and weakness in Evernorth shares, but these developments do not establish a single cause for the token's performance. Nor does the approaching escrow event guarantee an increase in selling pressure.
The next phase of price discovery will depend on whether investment demand stabilizes, how markets respond to the Fed's policy decision, and what the escrow transactions reveal about the net change in available supply. Together, those indicators should help determine whether XRP's recent weakness is stabilizing or extending into November.
