Solana
Solana (SOL) remains under technical pressure as a descending price channel, weakening momentum, and concentrated bullish positioning leave the asset vulnerable to further downside. With SOL trading below its nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), the $100 support area has become a critical level for determining whether the current decline extends toward lower chart-based support zones.
The daily chart places SOL at $101.42, below its nine-day EMA at $103.41. Since reaching a peak near $122 in September, the asset has formed successive lower highs and lower lows, reflecting a weakening price structure. Two descending trendlines have framed the decline since early October, with the upper boundary limiting rebounds and the lower boundary outlining the prevailing downward trajectory.
The immediate concern is the proximity of the $100 psychological support level. A daily close below this threshold could expose SOL to the $95 area, followed by a broader support zone between $90 and $92. These levels represent potential areas of interest based on the chart structure rather than predetermined price targets. Conversely, a sustained recovery above the descending channel would indicate that selling pressure may be losing control.
Positioning data adds another dimension to the bearish setup. According to Market Sniper Pro, accounts holding positions exceeding $1 million are 87% long, while smaller positions are 63% long. The stronger bullish bias among larger positions is notable because SOL's price structure remains weak. This positioning does not establish that the market must decline, but it suggests that a substantial portion of the tracked exposure is vulnerable if support breaks.
Liquidation estimates reinforce that risk. The reported liquidation map identifies approximately $10 million in potential liquidations near $98.07 among positions exceeding $1 million, placing the level roughly 2.3% below the cited spot price. Across the displayed price range, potential long liquidations below spot total approximately $53 million, compared with around $10 million in potential short liquidations above the market.
This imbalance suggests that a further decline could expose more of the displayed leveraged long exposure to forced closure than a rally would expose short positions. If SOL falls toward the $98 area, liquidations could add selling pressure and accelerate an existing move. Further liquidation clusters around the mid-$90s and upper-$80s could become relevant if weakness persists.
However, liquidation estimates are not forecasts of actual market orders. Whether these levels produce a cascading decline depends on market liquidity, position management, and how prices move through the identified clusters. The map therefore highlights potential areas of volatility rather than confirming that a liquidation event will occur.
The upside scenario also warrants attention. The liquidation map identifies potential short liquidations above spot, including clusters above $100 and around the upper-$110s. If SOL establishes a sustained recovery, forced closures of bearish positions could contribute to buying demand. Nevertheless, those clusters alone do not establish that a rally is likely, particularly while the broader price structure remains bearish.
Momentum indicators currently favor caution. SOL's daily relative strength index (RSI) stands at 36.36, below the neutral threshold of 50 but above the commonly used oversold level of 30. The reading indicates that downside momentum remains dominant without confirming that the asset has reached an exhaustion point.
Bearish RSI divergence signals appeared in early September and early October, preceding periods of weakening upward momentum. The subsequent price decline is consistent with the broader deterioration in market structure, although divergence signals cannot independently confirm the next direction of price.
For a recovery to gain technical credibility, SOL would first need to reclaim its nine-day EMA at $103.41. A move through the $105–$108 area would provide a stronger test of buying demand and the descending channel's upper boundary. Sustained movement beyond that resistance structure would weaken the current bearish interpretation and suggest that the market is beginning to establish a more constructive trend.
The next decisive development is therefore likely to be SOL's reaction around $100 and its ability to reclaim nearby resistance. A daily close below support would strengthen the case for a move toward $95 and potentially the $90–$92 region, while a recovery above $105–$108 would challenge the prevailing downward structure.
For now, the combination of weak momentum, a descending channel, and predominantly bullish leveraged positioning creates an asymmetric risk profile for long holders. The market has not confirmed a liquidation cascade, but a loss of support could bring the concentration of vulnerable positions into sharper focus. A sustained recovery above nearby resistance would be the clearest evidence that selling pressure is beginning to ease.
