Markets expect the Fed to hold rates, but an unexpected hike could hit Bitcoin and risk assets. Oil near $115 and Israel’s election add fresh uncertainty to an already fragile market outlook.
Brazilian corporate accounts drove 78% of Mercado Bitcoin’s election-day trading as USDT turnover surged nearly 800%, reflecting concerns about the real and Brazil’s fiscal outlook.
Ripple receives final OCC approval for a national trust bank while expanding RLUSD integrations with BNY and Robinhood, strengthening its push into regulated digital-asset custody and institutional finance.
Oracle is expanding its Nvidia AI chip deal to multi-gigawatt scale while adding Google TPUs, Cerebras and SambaNova systems and maintaining a $90B–$95B fiscal 2027 capital spending target.
Kalshi is adding a $2,500 monthly deposit cap for traders aged 18–20 and alerts for concentrated trades, alongside new partnerships focused on parent and youth education.
JPYC circulation remains near $20 million, far below its initial target, as transaction restrictions and redemptions limit growth despite corporate partnerships and bursts of trading activity.
Keystone will destroy 18,835 unsold hardware wallets after a breach exposed customer records and a device authentication key, while confirming that private keys and recovery phrases were not compromised.
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Desk Research
Technical Analysis
Updated every 4 hours
EMA 20EMA 50ResistanceSupportRSI 14
Daily indicatorsBTC / USD
EMA 20
$81,812
Price 1.5% below
EMA 50
$80,792
Price 0.3% below
EMA 200
$76,001
Price 6.0% above
RSI 14
44
Soft momentum
ATR 14
2.4%
Avg daily range
Volume
0.7×
24h vs 20-day avg
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BTC is at $80,584, +0.7% in 24 hours and −2.9% over seven days. Price has slipped below the 20- and 50-day averages, though the 20-day is still above the 50-day, while RSI at 44 shows momentum is soft. Resistance sits at $82,114, with support at $79,705.
BearishNeutralBullish
Mildly bearishscore −1 of ±5 · why ↓
●Trend0Below both averages; 20‑day still over 50‑day · above 200‑day
▼Momentum−1RSI 44 · MACD negative, recovering
●Positioning0Funding +0.010% · 69% long · balanced
●Sentiment0Fear & Greed 48 · Neutral
ResistanceR1 · +1.9%$82,114R2 · +5.1%$84,716
SupportS1 · −1.1%$79,705S2 · −5.2%$76,400
Key levels for Bitcoin
R2
$84,716
+5.1%
R1
$82,114
+1.9%
Price
$80,584
—
S1
$79,705
−1.1%
S2
$76,400
−5.2%
▲A daily close above $82,114 opens room toward $84,716.
▼Losing $79,705 on a daily close would put $76,400 in play.
Reviewed by Daniel Vance, Senior Technical Analyst
Correlation Matrix
How closely the largest coins move together
Each square compares two coins' hourly price moves. Near 1, they rise and fall together; near 0, they move independently.