Bitcoin
JPMorgan analysts say Bitcoin could gain an advantage over gold if investors become less cautious toward Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and reduce their hedging activity. The analysts point to elevated hedging around BlackRock’s IBIT as evidence that investors remain more defensive toward Bitcoin than gold.
According to the report, gold ETFs have already recovered all of the outflows recorded at the beginning of the year, while Bitcoin ETFs have so far recovered roughly half of those outflows. JPMorgan sees this difference as an indication that Bitcoin still has more room for demand to return.
A reduction in hedging demand could provide additional support for Bitcoin. If investors become more comfortable holding Bitcoin exposure without as much downside protection, the resulting shift in positioning could strengthen demand for the asset relative to gold.
The comparison also highlights a difference in how investors are currently approaching the two asset classes. Gold ETF flows have already reversed their earlier losses, while Bitcoin ETF flows have recovered more slowly. That gap leaves Bitcoin with a potentially larger pool of unrecovered demand, based on JPMorgan’s analysis.
The key factor to watch is whether the caution reflected in Bitcoin ETF hedging begins to ease. A sustained reduction in defensive positioning, alongside stronger ETF demand, would provide a clearer signal that investor sentiment toward Bitcoin is converging with the demand already seen in gold ETFs.
