Bitcoin
Investment bank TD Cowen has raised its Bitcoin price targets, maintaining a positive long-term view of the cryptocurrency while taking a more cautious stance toward Strategy shares.
Lance Vitanza, Managing Director and Senior Analyst of Digital Asset Strategies at TD Cowen, said institutional investors are increasingly focused not on whether to gain exposure to Bitcoin, but on which financial instruments to use for that exposure. He expects Bitcoin to generate average annual returns of approximately 20% to 30% over the long term.
Under TD Cowen’s latest projections, Bitcoin is expected to reach $109,000 by the end of 2026, $132,750 by the end of 2027 and $280,000 by the end of 2029. The updated targets represent a significant revision from the bank’s earlier outlook, which had been reduced from $140,000 to approximately $100,000 for the end of 2026 in June.
The more constructive Bitcoin outlook does not extend to Strategy. TD Cowen is maintaining a $260 price target for the company’s shares, citing dilution concerns associated with the capital increases being used to finance additional Bitcoin purchases. According to the bank’s assessment, these issuances reduce the relative ownership share of existing shareholders.
The divergence between TD Cowen’s outlook for Bitcoin and Strategy highlights the different factors influencing direct cryptocurrency exposure and equity-based exposure to Bitcoin. For the market, the key focus will be whether institutional demand continues to strengthen and supports Bitcoin’s longer-term valuation trajectory.
