Bitcoin
Bitcoin is heading into Friday's U.S. jobs report with institutional ETF demand weakening sharply while options positioning points to continued interest in an upside move toward $90,000 and beyond. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows totaling $3 billion, but daily demand fell from nearly $1 billion to just $31 million on Monday.
The slowdown represents a roughly 96% decline in daily ETF demand from the recent peak. CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartun said Bitcoin ETF demand is “cooling fast” while pointing to additional potential sell-side pressure from short-term holders.
According to Maartun, short-term holders moved approximately 45,054 BTC to exchanges over a 24-hour period. Such transfers can increase the amount of Bitcoin potentially available for sale, although the movement itself does not establish that the coins will ultimately be sold.
Bitcoin has also remained sensitive to the broader macroeconomic backdrop. The asset pulled back from around $87,000 to below $84,000 as high U.S. yields continued to pressure risk assets. Binance CEO Richard Teng nevertheless said investor demand was showing signs of improvement despite the challenging macro environment.
The immediate catalyst is Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report, which is expected to provide a clearer indication of the condition of the U.S. labor market. The source indicates that a weaker labor report could reduce concerns about another Federal Reserve rate hike and support expectations for unchanged rates, potentially providing a more favorable environment for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Conversely, stronger labor-market data could revive concerns about additional monetary tightening. At the time covered by the report, the probability of another 25-basis-point rate hike had fallen to 42%, while the probability of a rate pause had risen to 57%.
That makes the jobs report particularly relevant for Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. A weakening labor market could reinforce expectations for a pause and potentially improve risk appetite, while stronger employment data could put renewed pressure on rate-sensitive assets. The report, however, does not establish that either outcome will necessarily determine Bitcoin's direction.
Options positioning provides another indication of market expectations. The highest open interest was concentrated around call strikes at $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000, suggesting that some options traders are positioned for a potential upside move.
The contrast between derivatives positioning and weakening ETF demand leaves Bitcoin facing two opposing signals. ETF inflows remain positive on a cumulative basis, but the sharp decline in daily demand suggests that institutional buying momentum has cooled. At the same time, short-term holder transfers to exchanges introduce additional potential supply, while options positioning shows continued interest in higher price levels.
Bitcoin's ability to maintain levels above $80,000 will therefore remain an important part of the setup described in the report. The next major variable is the labor-market data, which could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and, through that channel, broader risk appetite.
Whether Friday's report provides the catalyst for a renewed recovery toward the $90,000 area or adds further pressure to Bitcoin will depend on how the labor data changes the market's view of monetary policy.
