Bitcoin
Bitcoin fell below $84,000 during Asian trading on Thursday, reaching $83,200 as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007, increasing pressure on risk-sensitive assets.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed Wednesday at 5.11%, up from 4.96% a day earlier, and reached 5.13% intraday. Stronger U.S. business data and higher oil prices were cited as factors behind the bond selloff. Bitcoin’s decline brought $82,833 into focus as the next level to watch if the pullback extends, according to the market analysis cited in the source.
Higher Treasury yields can increase the relative return available from government debt while raising borrowing costs across financial markets. For Bitcoin, a further rise in yields and the U.S. dollar could create additional pressure on leveraged positions and other risk assets.
The rate outlook has also shifted. Bas Kooijman of DHF Capital said markets had increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening following stronger business activity and elevated energy prices. CME FedWatch data cited in the source showed a 75.3% probability of an October rate increase to 4.00%-4.25%, while another market assessment placed the probability above 70%.
At the same time, the U.S. Treasury announced a ceiling of $6 billion for a Thursday buyback of bonds with approximately 20 to 30 years remaining until maturity. The expanded buyback program is intended to improve liquidity in longer-dated Treasury securities.
For Bitcoin, the combination of higher yields, a potentially stronger dollar and changing rate expectations creates a more demanding macro backdrop. The market could react to upcoming economic data if it causes investors to further adjust expectations for an October rate decision.
Seasonality provides a separate backdrop. Bitcoin has gained in September for three consecutive years and was up 7.35% for September at the time referenced. October has historically been stronger, finishing higher in 10 of 13 completed years and averaging a 19.92% gain, according to CoinGlass data. However, October 2025 ended with a 3.69% decline, showing that historical seasonal patterns have not been consistent.
The next focus will be whether Bitcoin can stabilize above the $82,833 level while Treasury yields and expectations for Federal Reserve policy continue to evolve. Upcoming economic data could influence both rate expectations and the broader liquidity environment.
